Todd Kromann and I facilitated a workshop at Agile2014 on the subjects of Dude's Law and Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF). We helped the group understand how to apply relative estimation not only to Cost of Implementation (size, expense, complexity, etc.) but also Cost of Delay (urgency, risk, dependency, compliance, etc.). We used the modified Fibonacci sequence most often used for Story Points to quantify both of these numbers, which was done by table teams. Each feature's Value Index, used to prioritize, was determined by its Cost of Delay number divided by its Cost of Implementation number. (You can get a soft copy of the handout we used here).
At the end of the workshop we had, as we usually do, a team whose features included a tie. This sometimes happens because they have the exact same Cost of Delay and Cost of Implementation numbers. More often, this happens because the numbers used in the equation are different, but the division comes out the same. One of the questions that invariable arises is: which feature should be prioritized first?
In theory, it doesn't matter - the ratio of urgency to expense is the same. Once both are implemented the ROI is equal. The decision of which to do first should be determined by the organization. In reality, I believe that the smaller feature should be implemented first. I've drawn up an example to illustrate.
In this scenario, we have two features, A and B. Feature B is 20 times more expensive than A, but also 20 times as valuable. Let's look at what would happen if we implemented Feature A first.
As you can see, we get a little value very quickly and significantly more after a delay. If we say that the y-axis represents millions of dollars and the x-axis represents quarters of the year, then we get $2MM/quarter after our first three months with no increase until five years later, when our quarterly revenue jumps to $42MM. By the end of our 22nd quarter, we will have earned $82MM.
Now let's see what it would look like if we did Feature B first.
Using the same axis values as before, we're basically going five years without any revenue. However, after five years of development, our revenue jumps to $40MM/quarter, with a $2MM/quarter bump immediately after. Just like before, we will have earned $82MM by the end of our 22nd quarter and will be earning $42MM/quarter thereafter.
So which one's better?
Do you really want to go five years without bringing in any revenue? Of course not! You'd much rather start capitalizing on your work after only one quarter's worth of work. Not only do you now have some money in to fund yourself, you're learning from the market based on how they use what you've released. This new-found knowledge will improve the quality of subsequent releases.
The reality is that, although the former option is better than the latter, neither are great. What you should do is, while you implement Feature A, break down Feature B into smaller components. It is highly unlikely that all of these components will have a 2:1 ratio of CoD:CoI. You'll identify which sub-Features provide the highest relative ROI and implement them as soon as you finish with Feature A. There may be sub-Features that you never get around to implementing because the value doesn't justify the expense. You can instead move on to a new Feature and begin decomposing and prioritizing its pieces. By the end of your 22nd quarter, you'll end up bringing in much more than the $82MM/quarter number that the two options above afforded.
That's my take on what to do in the event of a WSJF tie. What would you do?
Showing posts with label Agile2014. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Agile2014. Show all posts
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Monday, August 4, 2014
Personal WIP
As my faithful subscribers (all both of you) may have noticed, I haven't posted anything in a while. Despite my commitment at the beginning of the year to blog at least weekly, I found myself recently with too much Personal WIP (Work In Progress). Let me catch you up on what's been going on.
We recently welcomed our third child into the world! His older brother and sister are both very excited, as you can see. He's been a joy, one that's kept us quite busy! He came in at 10 and a half pounds, which means that I spent more and more time helping at home to alleviate the burden on my already overburdened wife. This was a no-brainer - as my WIP increased, the priority went to my family.
New Baby!

We recently welcomed our third child into the world! His older brother and sister are both very excited, as you can see. He's been a joy, one that's kept us quite busy! He came in at 10 and a half pounds, which means that I spent more and more time helping at home to alleviate the burden on my already overburdened wife. This was a no-brainer - as my WIP increased, the priority went to my family.
Agile2014
Last week I had two firsts: I attended my first Agile Alliance conference and presented at my first Agile conference! I made sure that I had family and friends in place to assist my wife with our 2-week-old and flew to Orlando to co-present with fellow Agile Coach, Todd Kromann. We didn't use any slides, just a hand-written handout (available here), some index cards, markers, and tape. We played a game and had a great discussion. We even had the Dude himself, David Hussman, show up and commend us on our use of his Intellectual Property. We had a blast! Of course, in order for it to go as smoothly as it did, I had to spend some time before the baby came tweaking the handout and rehearsing the workshop.
Walmart Agile Summit
Prior to Agile2014, I participated in a 3-day Walmart Agile Summit in June. While I wasn't as involved as I'd have liked (again, that pesky WIP), I was on the core team and got to present a dry-run of my Dude's Law workshop. I got to meet Al Shalloway and Don Reinertsen, and I got to see Pat Reed and Rich Sheridan again. It was a fantastic experience made possible through the hard work and dedication of many people. I may not have had a lot of bandwidth, but I wanted to make sure I dedicated at least some of my WIP went to the Summit.
Walmart Agile Transformation
Of course, as the Agile Summit might have indicated, we're taking the Agile effort at Walmart quite seriously. I'm not going to disclose a lot of information or details - this isn't going to be a case study - but Todd and I were the first 2 Agile Coaches in Walmart's Bentonville office, and we wanted to make sure the Agile Transformation was done by invitation, not edict. We've had fantastic support from senior leadership, and the success of our Agile teams has accelerated the grassroots momentum that's been building. The Agile Summit served as gasoline to the proverbial fire, and interest in Agile began to rise sharply, even before the first day of the Summit. My time at work has been exciting, challenging, and incredibly rewarding. As much as I wanted to keep sharing my thoughts with the blogosphere, I owe my professional efforts first and foremost to my fellow Associates.
So that's what I've been up to. I can't promise I'll resume blogging on a weekly basis, but I am cautiously optimistic that I'll be posting more regularly that I have the past few months!
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Agile2014 Proposal Accepted
Today is a big day for me; today I accepted an invitation to speak at a conference for the first time! Todd Kromann and I will be co-facilitating a workshop I've put together on value-driven prioritization, based on the concepts of Hussman's "Dude's Law" and WSJF. I've copied my abstract below. If you're going to be at Agile2014, let me know! I'd love to meet you in Orlando this summer!
Information for Review Team:
The break-out of the 75 minutes would include:
3 minutes: Introduction to Dude's Law and the Value-Driven Heuristic
10 minutes: Explain and model the first exercise (Team Estimation Game for relative sizing)
10 minutes: Have round-table teams execute first exercise with a set of 10 features
5 minutes: Explain and model the second exercise (Team Estimation Game for relative benefit - same mechanism, so it takes less time to explain and model)
10 minutes: Have the round-table teams execute second exercise with the same set of 10 features
10 minutes: Have each team determine the Value Index of each card by applying Dude's Law
15 minutes: Have teams share their outcomes, insights
12 minutes (or less, if previous sections have run over): Q&A *
* In the case that there are not enough questions to fill the remaining time, I will explain the flexibility of Dude's Law (you can use Planning Poker or whatever technique works best for you) and introduce them to concepts such as Weighted Shortest Job First and Value Dial weighting.
Prerequisite Knowledge:
Learning Outcomes:
Presentation History:
Comment:
My presentation is a reflection of my own beliefs and experiences. None of the material I present should be interpreted as an endorsement by my employer. I have received express written permission from David Hussman to reference Dude's Law, and I am a Certified SAFe Program Consultant (SPC), which qualifies me to speak on their Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF) Framework.
Practical Application of Dude's Law: Come Play the Value Estimation Game!
Abstract:
You know how you determine the "bigness" of your work and establishing commitments, but how do your customers ensure you're committing to the right thing?
Come experience relative estimation to determine value. We'll use David Hussman's "Dude's Law" (Value = Why? / How?) to prioritize the work.
We will share techniques for determining the "Why?" so that you can generate a Value Index. What many people will be surprised to learn is that they already have tools for sizing that can be used for determining value and prioritization.
The break-out of the 75 minutes would include:
3 minutes: Introduction to Dude's Law and the Value-Driven Heuristic
10 minutes: Explain and model the first exercise (Team Estimation Game for relative sizing)
10 minutes: Have round-table teams execute first exercise with a set of 10 features
5 minutes: Explain and model the second exercise (Team Estimation Game for relative benefit - same mechanism, so it takes less time to explain and model)
10 minutes: Have the round-table teams execute second exercise with the same set of 10 features
10 minutes: Have each team determine the Value Index of each card by applying Dude's Law
15 minutes: Have teams share their outcomes, insights
12 minutes (or less, if previous sections have run over): Q&A *
* In the case that there are not enough questions to fill the remaining time, I will explain the flexibility of Dude's Law (you can use Planning Poker or whatever technique works best for you) and introduce them to concepts such as Weighted Shortest Job First and Value Dial weighting.
The concept of Relative Sizing (Story Points, T-shirt sizing, etc.)
- Experience and learn how to apply a practical, proven game for prioritizing your work based on value
- Understand that using a heuristic for valuation is better than both gut-feel and over-engineering
- Understand that, as with estimating size/cost, the real value comes from the conversation
I've done the Team Estimation Game dozens of times before with as many teams and have done the exercise including benefit to determine a Value Index with at least one of those teams. I also have led Program Management teams through a very similar prioritization matrix model that leverages the concept of Weighted Shortest Job First.
My presentation is a reflection of my own beliefs and experiences. None of the material I present should be interpreted as an endorsement by my employer. I have received express written permission from David Hussman to reference Dude's Law, and I am a Certified SAFe Program Consultant (SPC), which qualifies me to speak on their Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF) Framework.
Labels:
Agile2014,
David Hussman,
Dude's Law,
Estimate,
Estimation,
Estimation Game,
How,
Value,
Why,
WSJF
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Introspective: Moist Robots
![]() |
| I liked this book so much I bought it for my brother's graduation gift! |
While I don't fully agree with Mr. Adams on the matter of free will, his hypothesis has tuned me into things that are easy to control and also lead to good decision making (versus leaving choices as hard and having to exert willpower, which is unsustainable). I was able to flesh these thoughts out a little more when a co-worker of mine asked me to revise one of our proposals to Agile2014 in response to the reviews we were getting. Our proposal, entitled "The Secret Sauce of Agile" (I'm open to alternative titles, by the way), builds on Mr. Adam's hypothesis that we are moist robots. I'd love your feedback on it.
Now let's switch gears and talk about how hard it is for lifelong fat people (such as myself) to lose weight. This is another topic that Mr. Adams covers in his book (though I haven't gotten to that part yet). I've had periods of relative health, but it's only considered health relative to the rest of my life. Compared to people who are actually healthy people, I don't think I can say I've ever been healthy. So I've been trying to get healthy by using the concept that we are moist robots. I have been on the lookout for things around me that are easy for me to control which will, in turn, make it easier to make healthy choices.
A lot of the things I am doing are just good sense: don't buy unhealthy food at the grocery store; don't go shopping when I'm hungry; don't carry change and small bills for vending machines; pack my breakfast and lunch; carry a water bottle; keep gym clothes in my vehicle; etc. The idea is to not focus on changing the hard things. I'm not going on a grapefruit juice diet. It's just not going to happen. But I can change a bunch of little things quite easily so that, when the time comes to choose between healthy and unhealthy, I can pick healthy choices while expending the least amount of willpower. After all, we humans have limited willpower to expend daily (some more than others).
This is applicable to everyone and everything. Use this with your Agile teams. What problems are the team having? What small, simple things can be done to prevent those problems from surfacing? What tweaks in the way your team runs can be applied to make it easier for each person to make more Agile choices? Seriously, what? Bring this concept to the table and let me know how it goes!
Labels:
Agile2014,
dieting,
Dilbert,
Fail Fast,
Failure,
Improvement,
Incremental,
Introspective,
Kaizen,
Moist Robots,
New Year,
Resolution,
Scott Adams
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Addendum: Agile 2014 Proposals
I blogged recently about a proposal I submitted to Agile2014. As the deadline for submission is today, I won't be asking for your feedback on the submission website (unless you're a reviewer for the track). However, I'd still love to hear your thoughts here on the blog!
Additionally, I have assisted a co-worker with putting together 3 additional proposals as co-presenter. I'd like to share the information on all of these proposals here with you now. I cannot over-emphasize how much I want to hear what you think about them!
Abstract:
Information for
Review Team:
* As this section is the least important it may be reduced or eliminated if previous sections run long
Prerequisite
Knowledge:
Learning Outcomes:
Presentation
History:
Comment:
My presentation is a reflection of my own beliefs and
experiences. None of the material I present should be interpreted as an
endorsement by my employer. I have received express written permission from
David Hussman to reference Dude's Law, and I am a Certified SAFe Program
Consultant (SPC), which qualifies me to speak on their Weighted Shortest Job
First (WSJF) Framework.
Additionally, I have assisted a co-worker with putting together 3 additional proposals as co-presenter. I'd like to share the information on all of these proposals here with you now. I cannot over-emphasize how much I want to hear what you think about them!
Practical Application of Dude's Law: Come Play the Value Estimation Game!
Abstract:
You know how you determine the "bigness" of your
work and establishing commitments, but how do your customers ensure you're
committing to the right thing?
Come experience relative estimation to determine value.
We'll use David Hussman's "Dude's Law" (Value = Why? / How?) to
prioritize the work.
We will share techniques for determining the
"Why?" so that you can generate a Value Index. What many people will
be surprised to learn is that they already have tools for sizing that can be
used for determining value and prioritization.
Information for
Review Team:
The break-out of the 75 minutes would include:
3 minutes: Introduction to Dude's Law and the
Value-Driven Heuristic
10 minutes: Explain and model the first exercise (Team Estimation Game for relative sizing)
10 minutes: Have round-table teams execute first exercise with a set of 10 features
5 minutes: Explain and model the second exercise (Team Estimation Game for relative benefit - same mechanism, so it takes less time to explain and model)
10 minutes: Have the round-table teams execute second exercise with the same set of 10 features
10 minutes: Have each team determine the Value Index of each card by applying Dude's Law
15 minutes: Have teams share their outcomes, insights
12 minutes: Explain the flexibility of Dude's Law (you can use Planning Poker or whatever technique works best for you) and introduce them to concepts such as Weighted Shortest Job First and Value Dial weighting*
10 minutes: Explain and model the first exercise (Team Estimation Game for relative sizing)
10 minutes: Have round-table teams execute first exercise with a set of 10 features
5 minutes: Explain and model the second exercise (Team Estimation Game for relative benefit - same mechanism, so it takes less time to explain and model)
10 minutes: Have the round-table teams execute second exercise with the same set of 10 features
10 minutes: Have each team determine the Value Index of each card by applying Dude's Law
15 minutes: Have teams share their outcomes, insights
12 minutes: Explain the flexibility of Dude's Law (you can use Planning Poker or whatever technique works best for you) and introduce them to concepts such as Weighted Shortest Job First and Value Dial weighting*
* As this section is the least important it may be reduced or eliminated if previous sections run long
Prerequisite
Knowledge:
The concept of Relative Sizing (Story Points, T-shirt
sizing, etc.)
Learning Outcomes:
1.
Experience and learn how to apply a practical,
proven game for prioritizing your work based on value
2.
Understand that using a heuristic for valuation
is better than both gut-feel and over-engineering
3.
Understand that, as with estimating size/cost,
the real value comes from the conversation
Presentation
History:
I've done the Team Estimation Game dozens of times before
with as many teams and have done the exercise including benefit to determine a
Value Index with at least one of those teams. I also have led Program
Management teams through a very similar prioritization matrix model that
leverages the concept of Weighted Shortest Job First.
Comment:
My presentation is a reflection of my own beliefs and
experiences. None of the material I present should be interpreted as an
endorsement by my employer. I have received express written permission from
David Hussman to reference Dude's Law, and I am a Certified SAFe Program
Consultant (SPC), which qualifies me to speak on their Weighted Shortest Job
First (WSJF) Framework.The Secret Sauce of Agile
Abstract:
Humans are basically moist robots. As much as we like to
think that we are logical, rational beings, we really aren't. The best thing we
can do to improve our decision-making is to influence our environment and
develop skills that will increase the odds of making the right decisions.
Beyond the techniques, practices, principles, and even
beyond the manifesto; that's the secret to Agile success. Through dialog,
games, and an open agenda, we'll explore that secret. Together we'll find the
next evolution of Agile via application of that secret.
The foundations of Agile are human centered and
scientifically backed. To get the most out of Agile and to leapfrog beyond it,
we need to understand how Agile works. It's the wiring of our social minds, the
relationships, tacit knowledge, and our predictably irrational natures that
ensure Agile success and doom all other approaches. So, what is that secret
sauce that mix of ingredients?
Information for Review Team:
Introduction (7 minutes)
We will discuss the hypothesis that influencing those
factors that determine our decisions is a more effective use of time than
simply exerting willpower to make correct decisions. We will introduce factors
of significance that we have already found and invite the audience to provide others.
Mind Mapping (50 minutes; up to 10 minutes per factor)
We will use mind-mapping to explore what we can do, as
practitioners and coaches, to increase our odds of success by influencing:
1.
Knowledge and skill-set (what knowledge, if
internalized and applied, will help us make the right choices?)
2.
Environment (How can we modify our physical
environment to make us more successful?)
3.
Chemical makeup of our bodies (What foods,
drinks, and activities make us more likely to succeed?)
4.
Removal of guesswork (What decisions can we make
when in a "rational" state that will lessen the impact of impulse
decisions when we're "irrational", i.e. conflict protocols, etc.?)
5.
Others as identified by the audience
So What? (Remaining Time)
Use the information to help those in the audience generate
actions based on their new knowledge to help their teams and organizations
succeed. This is not a theoretical exercise; this is an Inspect & Adapt
exercise rooted in human psychology.
We are prepared to adjust the presentation style depending
on the seating arrangement; we can make both work well.
Prerequisite Knowledge:
Deep experience with breathing
Learning Outcomes:
1.
Learn the success secrets of Agile embedded in
human behavior, social science, and the way we're wired.
2.
Learn to use science and human nature to go
beyond Agile.
3.
Walk out being able to use your knowledge to be
more successful with Agile.
4.
Move to the next evolution of Agile.
Presentation History:
This is a new approach that we're experimenting with
currently with small teams and leadership groups. The agenda is loose because
every group is different and responds differently; our goal is to let those
present take ownership of the meeting and take it where they need it to go.
Flexible IT Using Enterprise Kanban
Abstract:
We will walk through multiple examples of how to setup
visual signaling systems to replace the wasteful reports, meetings, management,
tools currently used to track, prioritize, manage, and control portfolios,
investments, programs, and projects. This talk will describe the essentials of
how IT can adapt to massive disruptions. The story comes from one of the world’s
largest companies. We've altered things to form a generic story; but the
techniques are proven, simple, working and effective. These disruptions are
constant major shifts in technology and business that have been canceling and
starting new programs / projects for years.
Big data, competitive innovation, mobility, leverage, and
fluxes in profit and loss have had huge impact over IT. Consider having to
building a data center, starting a big data pillar with hundreds of
specialists, and dropping large portions of budget all at the same time. These
disruptions cannot be planned for their adaptations in response to technology,
financials, and business changes.
To protect the innocent, this story details in this
discussion have been formed in the form of a story. However, this leverages
stories from a successful implementation of enterprise kanban at a major
retailer. The approach is so simple it may not seem realistic. But stories of
dealing flexibly with disruption are becoming common. Our stories will be
richer and will have more real without any complexity. This story leverages a
chain of values, decentralized and centralized decision-making, transparency,
collaborations, evolutionary architecture, and innovations. These form the
backbone for allowing a simple kanban system manage the flow of a flexible
approach to dealing with global, enterprise disruption.
Information for Review Team:
Ideally, this would use large post-its and sticky notes with
strings in a live demonstration. Our current system uses LeanKit; but we'd like
to present tool agnostic.
The break-out of the 75 minutes would include:
5 minutes: Introductions - A story of 5 Continuous
Crucial Conversations
5 minutes: Pre-requisites to Flexibility
5 minutes: Disruption – Innovation – Zero Click Shopping
5 minutes: A Flexible Response –Enterprise kanban in Action
5 minutes: Business Leadership - Reprioritize IT funding (Business Investments)
5 minutes: IT Leadership – Adjust IT capacity and create big requirements– (epics)
5 minutes: Domain Leadership - Breaks big requirements into pieces, rank, and distribute work (sub-epics)
5 minutes: Team of Teams Leadership - Form domain teams, Break sub-epics, and rank (features)
5 minutes: Teams - Break features into stories, Deliver solution parts (stories)
5 minutes: Enterprise kanban as an Innovation engine
5 minutes: Enterprise kanban supported by Lean IT & Kanban Services
5 minutes: Enterprise kanban as an Execution engine
15 minutes: Q&A
5 minutes: Pre-requisites to Flexibility
5 minutes: Disruption – Innovation – Zero Click Shopping
5 minutes: A Flexible Response –Enterprise kanban in Action
5 minutes: Business Leadership - Reprioritize IT funding (Business Investments)
5 minutes: IT Leadership – Adjust IT capacity and create big requirements– (epics)
5 minutes: Domain Leadership - Breaks big requirements into pieces, rank, and distribute work (sub-epics)
5 minutes: Team of Teams Leadership - Form domain teams, Break sub-epics, and rank (features)
5 minutes: Teams - Break features into stories, Deliver solution parts (stories)
5 minutes: Enterprise kanban as an Innovation engine
5 minutes: Enterprise kanban supported by Lean IT & Kanban Services
5 minutes: Enterprise kanban as an Execution engine
15 minutes: Q&A
Prerequisite Knowledge:
Have to have worked in mindless, massive, and. Mismanaged
companies. Need to have intimate, firsthand knowledge of corporate waste,
stupid status and other mindless bureaucracy. Must have years of experience
trying to do the right thing while working with overly complex, boring and
unproductive program and portfolio management policies, processes, methods,
tools and people.
Learning Outcomes:
1.
Walk out being able to setup a simple, flexible
way to connect the effort of teams of teams.
2.
Trace funding, strategy and progress to value
delivery.
3.
Increase visibility and communication while
decreasing reporting, meetings, and planning.
4.
Know how to use enterprise Kanban to replace
status reports, time sheets, and management.
5.
Having talking points and examples that will
help you set your organization free of vanity metrics, over processing, and
micro management.
Presentation History:
Not formally presented outside the company internal Agile
User Group
Leading Agile Transformation from a Beach: 2 Agile Coaches’ Journeys
Abstract:
Todd and Mike have both experienced the growing pains that
come from becoming Agile and helping others with the same. They had similar
experiences and learned similar lessons, but their journeys have been
surprisingly different. One took 15 years, the other took 5, and both took
longer than they had to.
This is a story of what not to do, what to do, and how do it
by not doing anything. It pulls from at least six multi-year Agile transformations
in some of the world’s largest companies. We'll share our experience in a story
that is sometimes funny, mostly true, and utterly real. We'll save you from
failures, help you see new ways of transforming yourself, teams, companies, and
cultures. Or, perhaps, we'll just provide a self-affirmation opportunity for
you to confirm that what you are doing is much more intelligent than what other
Agilists have done.
Information for Review Team:
May have to protect names to save the innocent and spend
less on legal fees. Combined transformation experience of almost 2 decades
covering thousands in major companies and consulting firms.
Prerequisite Knowledge:
Must have lead an Agile transformation of a team, set of
teams, company or, that hardest of all Agile transformations - yourself.
Learning Outcomes:
1.
Build confidence
2.
Teach you how to transform without working
3.
Help you avoid stupid transformations
Presentation History:
First time for this one. Parts shared at PMI chapter and
local Agile User groups.
Attachments:
Labels:
Agile,
Agile2014,
Coaching,
Dude's Law,
Human,
Journey,
Kanban,
Proposal,
Transformation
Friday, January 10, 2014
Agile2014 Proposal
I really want to present at Agile2014, and I think I've got a decent proposal. But I'm biased, so I'm asking for help. Please check out my proposal at https://submissions.agilealliance.org/sessions/1691 and leave a comment/review letting me know what you think. Submission deadline is coming up soon, and I appreciate any and all feedback!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)




